The international bestseller
''A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.'' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow
_________________________
What if we could improve our ability to predict the future?
Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we''re not very good at it.
In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock''s latest project - an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions - has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable fo
